IR: Harsh Stance on the British Soldiers’ Situation
Posted by KamangirMar 24
Rajanew, a website very close to Ahmadinejad, writes,
While the diplomatic pressure from Iran on UK has balanced the media pressure from the West, we have received news that the government is very keen to keep the invader soldiers and to not to release them. A source in the government told our reporter that the captured soldiers will not be released until official apology is stated and that they promise to not to commit such actions ever. The same source stated that the captured soldiers are transferred to Tehran and are still in the custody of the armed forces, and not the government. It should be emphasized that the arrested soldiers must be tried in Iran and the verdict should be carried out afterwards. Given that they were armed at the time of arrest, if it is proved that they performed an intentional entrance and if they get convicted of espionage, the verdict could be very harsh.
Personally, I think this could be what the US was so looking for.
[...] shall see. Meanwhile, Iranian blogger Kamangir says a website aligned with Ahmadinejad says Iran is looking for an apology. digg_url = [...]
The Brits will apologize, as long as there is no trial for their navy personnel. The waterway border area between Iraq and Iran has been a bone of contention for centuries, long before and after they became modern nation-states. It seems to be irrational to escalate tensions with a trial; capture and apology would appear to be more moderate. However, if a military trial ensues against the British Navy personnel, the trial itself becomes representative of Iranian desire for confrontation.
When Iran last attempted to provoke the U.S. Navy in the 1980′s, half of the Iranian Navy was sunk in retaliation.
I think that Ahmadinejad wants tensions to escalate. Iran economic position will worsen when/if UN will start the sanction and even his present supporters may get second thoughts about his policies. On the other hand any military attack by the west will increase his popularity among arabs and muslims outside iran, he will have opportunity to crack down on his opponents inside Iran and iranians will support his actions against “invader”. The situation will be somewhat similar to the one Hizbullah managed to achieve in Lebanon, Iran may be devastated because of Ahmadinejad policies but Ahmadinejad will manage to blame everything on the West.
Iran is up to something obviously. I dont think the US is so stupid as to not realize Iran is trying to provoke a reaction. (Its hard to tell if anyone can think in Washington nowadays)
The only question is.. what reaction is Iran hoping to provoke and why.
kamangire aziz. ba tashakor az mohabatat be weblog mahjad va tarjomeye mataleb، omidvaram adame ersale feed ha ra be hesabe kam lotfie ma nagozari. chera ke an nashi az bi etela ee ma az feed hast. khosh hal mishavim rahnamaeeman koni ke FEED chist ta an ra barayt ersal konim. mamnoon az lotfat.
This stuff happens all the time. It even happened in 2004 when Brits were taken by Persians.
Everybody puffs up, declarations are made, sabers are rattled, diplomacy is diplomized, and it all blows over.
When you are a soldier you pay your money and take your chances. Reports here are already saying that the Brits strayed to the wrong side of some disputed line. The Brits are praising the professionalism of their troops is acting properly when captured. The Diplomacy has already obviously started.
Not much will come of this.
LOL.. yeah every day hostile nations are kidnapping the soldiers of other nations.. its routine.
fools.
No, it doesn’t happen every day, but it does happen. Non-belligerents have ways to handle this.
Of all the World’s countries I can think of I am not sure the Brits are a people and country I would play these dangerous types of actions with. They may not have as powerful of a military as we do in the USA, but they have been around a long time and are not afraid of pushing back when pushed. And they do not have the cowboy image that we here in the USA have, so the rest of the world is more accepting of their military decisions.
China “kidnapped” some American pilots back in 2001, but there were no trials. Putting UK soldiers on trial would be something new, at least new since the American U2 pilot was put on trial by the CCCP. This is exactly what the US Government wanted… how can the Democrats ask for a pullout or at least a lowering of the troop numbers in the region while Iran is acting like this? If the IR wanted America out of the region they should have sat back and played The Victim for another year. Internal pressure in America by Americans not seeing a threat would have had the US out of there by 2009. You’d think people would have learned by now… if you don’t want America to react, don’t poke them — or their friends — in the eye. Look for The Brits to “accidentally” (“These manoeuvres were planned decades ago, nothing to see here.”) increase it’s naval presence in the region. There will be definite consequences to everything that happens from here on out. This was a stupid, stupid play by the IR.
Iran to try 15 sailors for “being spies”…
A website run by associates of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, reported last night that the Britons would be put before a court and indicted….
The Iranians sense the UK’s vulnerability, and are looking to kill their credibility and influence in the Middle East, thus separating them as a valuable ally from the US. It’s a risky gamble (the UK might not buckle), but evidently the bastards feel confident.
Rear The Seeds: The Regime in Iran doesn’t have years to play your game (which by the way, I agree with you, all things being equal). Iran is just like the other Muslim failed states… slowly but surely decaying internally, destablizing. It’s leadership knows that their days are numbered , that their country is surrounded by Sunnis and Americans, their Great Leader is ailing, thier oil infrastructure is beyond repair, etc.
The Iran Regime is Messianic and desperate.. Very dangerous.
Fear the Seeds: I didn’t mean to mistype your name
Analysis of Current Aggression Against UK
Two of the best analyses I’ve read of Iran’s current aggression against the UK are both at:
http://counterterrorismblog.org/ (March 23):
1.) “Royal Navy ‘incident’: the larger plan of Teheran’s regime” (by Walid Phares);
2.) “Iran: targeting the US – UK Alliance”
(by Aaron Manne).
Excerpted tidbits from both articles:
Royal Navy “incident”: The larger plan of Teheran’s regime
The capture of British Navy servicemen by Iranian forces is not simply an incident over sea sovereignty in the Persian Gulf. It is a calculated move on behalf of Teheran’s Jihadi chess players to provoke a “projected” counter move by London and its American allies. It is all happening in a regional context, carefully engineered by the Mullahs strategic planners. Here is how:
The Iranian regime’s master plan is to wait out the remainder of Tony Blair’s mandate (few more months) and the remaining “real time” of President Bush (till about the end of 2007). For the thinking process in Tehran, based on their Western consultants, believe that Washington and London have reached the end of the rope and will only have till 2008 to do something major to destabilize Ahmedinijad regime. As explained by a notorious propagandist on al Jazeera today the move is precisely to respond to the Anglo-American attempt to “stir trouble” inside Iran.
Anis Naccash, a Lebanese intellectual supporter of the Ayatollahs regime, appearing from Tehran few hours ago on the Qatari-based satellite and “explained” that the “US and the UK must understand that Iran is as much at war with these two powers in as much as they support the rise of movements and security instability inside Iran.” He added that Khamenei is clear on the regime’s decision to strike: “we will be at war with you on all levels: secret, diplomatic, military and other.” Pro-Iranian propagandists in the region, via media and online rushed to warn that this movement is part of Iran’s counter-strike against any attempt to destabilize the regime. Two major tracks emerge from these statements, the Iranian military maneuvers and the capture of British Navy personnel.
1) Iran’s domestic front is putting pressure on the Ahmedinijad regime.
From internal reporting, dissidents and anti-Ahmedinijad forces from various social sectors are practically in slow motion eruption against the authorities. Students, women, workers and political activists have been demonstrating and sometimes clashing with the regime’s security apparatus. Western media didn’t report proportionally on these events over the past few weeks. In addition, ethnic minority areas have been witnessing several incidents, including violence against the “Revolutionary Guards,” including in the Arab and Baluch areas. And last but not least, the defection of a major intelligence-military figure early this month to the West was, according to internal sources, a “massive loss” to the regime and a possible first one in a series.
2) The regime “needs” an external clash to crush the domestic challenge.
As in many comparable cases worldwide, when an authoritarian regime is faced with severe internal opposition it attempts to deflect the crisis onto the outside world. Hence, Teheran’s all out campaign against the US and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon and the region is in fact a repositioning of Iran’s shield against the expected rising opposition inside the country. Hence the Khomeinist Mullahs plan seem to be projected as follow:
a. Engage in the diplomatic realm, to project a realist approach worldwide, but refrain from offering real results
b. Continue, along with the Syrian regime, in supporting the “Jihadi” Terror operations (including sectarian ones) inside Iraq
c. Widen the propaganda campaign against the US and its allies via a number of PR companies within the West, to portray Iran as “a victim” of an “upcoming war provoked by the US.”
d. Engage in skirmishes in the Gulf (and possibly in other spots) with US and British elements claiming these action as “defensive,” while planned thoroughly ahead of time.
3) The regime plan is to drag its opponents into a trap
Teheran’s master planners intend to drag the “Coalition” into steps in engagement, at the timing of and in the field of control of Iran’s apparatus. Multiple options and scenarios are projected.
a. British military counter measure takes place, supported by the US. Iran’s regime believe that only “limited” action by the allies is possible, according to their analysis of the domestic constraints inside the two powerful democracies.
b. Tehran moves to a second wave of activities, at its own pace, hoping to draw a higher level of classical counter strikes by US and UK forces. The dosing by Iran’s leadership is expected to stretch the game in time, until the departure of Blair and of the Bush Administration by its political opponents inside the country’s institutions and public debate.
In a short conclusion the “War room” in Tehran has engaged itself in an alley of tactical moves it feels it can control. But the Iranian regime, with all its “political chess” expertise, may find itself in a precarious and risky situation. For while it feel that it can control the tactical battlefield in the region and fuel the propaganda pressure inside the West with its Petro-dollars, it may not be able to contain the internal forces in Iran, because of which it has decided to go on offense.
The Ahmedinijad regime wishes to crumble the international consensus to avoid the financial sanctions: that is true. But as important, if not more, it wants to be able to crush the revolt before it pounds the doors of the Mullahs palaces.
You can also read this
The China analogy makes no sense. The American E3 was in Chinese airspace; the British were clearly not in Iranian waters.
Furthermore, the US gov’t didn’t want a war with China. It was nothing more than a mutual embarrassment (and an opportunity for the Chinese to strip all the sexy electronic gadgetry off of the E3).
This is definitely a major move against the perceived ‘weakest link’ in the allied chain. A pretty damn good bluff…
The American spy plane was in Chinese airspace after being hit by a Chinese fighter jet who was showing off. There was no incursion, the US plane was in bail mode and looking for a safe harbour. There are rules, and military personnel looking for a safe place to land in a country they’re not at war with is allowed, without the humiliation. China broke the rules because they wanted to see what Bush would do… Iran is doing the same because they think the UK is bailing out. No way does this happen if the UK announced last week that it’s putting another 5,000 troops into the region.
Oh yeah, touche on the Chinese plane. But again, it wasn’t like there was going to be a war over it…
The UK already started pulling out, correct?
The Chinese/ spy plane incident, rather.
The Iran Regime is Messianic and desperate.. Very dangerous.
Dangerous like a rattlesnake that’s about to have it’s head cut off by a farmers wife with a hoe.
From what I remember of the Chinese thing a lot was made of the fact most of the US Pacific fleet was suddenly heading towards Taiwan for some “previously announced” manoeuvres… but no, no chance of all out war. Although, again, there were some (silly) people being interviewed on CNN and MSNBC (remember when they had some relevence?) who were calling for the use of Special Forces to get the Americans out if it looked like the Air Force guys were going to be hurt. But that was mostly the Americans sending a diplomatic message through talking heads.
Again, this really looks a lot like what Saddam did with those civilians back when Desert Shield was coming together. This gives the IR another month, maybe two months to figure out what the f*ck it’s going to do about it’s weapons program. If the soldiers are “convicted” I’m fairly confident that the “prisons” will be next to or very near some super-secret facilities and sites. If the soldiers are hurt, or look like they’re in danger of being lined up against a wall, look for some of those Marines and UK/US Special Forces that are being lined up on the IR border and on those Carriers to swoop in and do some interesting things.
The IR response to that will be the most interesting thing to happen this year. Look for the replays on Dick Clark’s New Years Eve Party.
Serendip… everything on your post makes complete sense… except none of it is right. A lot has been made of how ignorant “the west” has been regarding Iraq and the central policies towards the Middle East, but not enough has been made of the absolute general ignorance the Middle East has towards the West. The best book written on the subject, ever, is: “Occidentalism: The West In The Eyes Of Its Enemies” by Ian Buruma and Avishai Margalit. Find it. Really.
Fear the seeds: I couldn’t agree with you more on the ignorance of the ME toward the West. Thanks for the link.
I’m not sure which post you’re talking about. My post in my own blog or the counterterrorims website?
Serendip
Even though I agree with many points you have presented, I do not agree with your conclusion i.e. “Ahmadinejad….wants to be able to crush the revolt before it pounds the doors of the Mullahs palaces”.
I think that domestic opposition in Iran is rather too varied and too disorganized to have any real plan for changing present political system in Iran. It may want economic changes but as for revolt I think that majority of Iranians do not want to revolt or if they want to do so they do not have precise plan on how and what exactly they would like to change.
Nevertheless I believe that even disorganized opposition can put pressure on Ahmadinejad and change somewhat IRI external policy.
Serendip… sorry, I was referring to the post above (#comment-12418). Your blog I have no problem with whatsoever.
I’m going to try to leave a link here to something I wrote a while back that might apply to what’s going on… if it doesn’t work I apologize to Archer… if it doesn’t apply I apologize to the reader.
The Iranian Republic and its supporters are winning the marketing war by being the best possible victim they can be…
[...] Britons Held In Tehran: Kamangir has got a lot of recent information regarding this from media reports in Iran and from Iranian bloggers working in secret from inside [...]