The War Which did not Happen
Posted by KamangirApr 6
The rumors that the US might be preparing for an attack on Iran, in Good Friday, were taken by the administration quite seriously. As Baztab reports, the air defense system which protects Bushehr Nuclear Plant woke up the locals at 4am, when they started shooting for twenty minutes. Apparently, some locals spotted a red object in the sky. Given that the source of the rumors were Russians, the obvious question is why did they do that? Maybe making the Islamic Republic a bit worried so that they would take it easier on the struggle with the UK? Any way, this time nothing happened.
in lieu of cruise missiles, i’m launching well wishes from america to our friends (and to ones who hate us) in iran on this good friday holiday.
Haven’t you ever heard of Russia’s love for warm ports? hmmmm?
here you are at it again:
Everybody know that a conventional war against Iran will be lost by US/UK/Israel, Iran will loose too, but not that much, since they havent gain a lot for the last 3 decades, according to you. But the trios loss would be enormous. Then the only way for America to bring Iran to its knee will be the nuclear option. But everybody know that this will be the defeat of the human civilization, and the world for youngster like you (iranian? persian? 300) will be un-livable.
Hayden
Admittedly I don’t know much about war but what do you mean “everybody know that a conventional war against Iran will be lost by US/UK/Israel.” What about dropping couple hundreds of missiles, heavy duty ones, do you think they would not do the trick? I mean, realistically, how many conventional missiles US have? Why people always think about nuclear bunker busters?
As for the end of civilization, that is rubbish, Hiroshima and Nagasaki did not end human civilization, did not even end Japan as a nation.
Because if they did I could not ask you:
what car make do you have….Honda or Toyota? What camera do you use …Fuji? What hard drive does your computer have..Fujitsu?
Hmm….Hiroshima and Nagasaki were a shock for all people concerned, bombs took many human lives but it seems Japanese and Japan are going as strong as ever.
As for the “trios loss” ………..what do you mean “enormous loss”? Perhaps from the terrorists attacks by iranians inside US/UK/Israel? But you see if IRI start doing that that would be the end of Iran. Really.
I a documentary in TV about Israel. It was nothing about the soldiers killing people or anything like that. It was all about everyday life of people in Israel. I was amazed that how much they are similar to Iranians. A lot of similarities between their culture, their look, and even their architectures.
It’s a pity that people cannot talk to each other directly. Indeed media is responsible for so much hatred. They are the ones who inject eneminess and ignorance into the people’s mind and build walls between them.
If this war really begins, definitely it will be end of the world. There would be no more hope to peacefully live in this world again.
oops,
I saw a documentary…
Ella,
One thing that you don’t see is that, this is not only a war for a couple of weeks. You should be so simple person to say so.
Firstly, any attack to Iran will cause IR regime to escalate it to a real big war with anything related to the west. Definitely Strait of Hurmoz is the first place for fighting and then it might go to the other countries.
Secondly, if the west attacks Iran, it will make a confrontation with the east that includes China and probably Russia. Remember the two world wars happened when they started fighting in other countries, India, Japan, Vietnam, Africa…
In the begining even Russia and England were best friends, right?
Smileme,
About the similarities of the Israeli culture and the Iranian one, I do agree with you. It’s a pity the two nations cannot enjoy a peaceful get together.
@5 I totally agree. What’s even more tragic is that there’s no objective reason for Iran and Israel to fight.
The 2 countries are 1000km apart and have no inherent conflicts at all (e.g. over natural resources). Israel has never in its history used military force against Iran, and in fact aided the IR against Saddam during the ’80s. And Israel has an important Iranian-Israeli community, while Iran has one of the few Jewish communities left in the region.
The sad fact is that it has been the IR’s *choice* to waste its precious resources attacking Israel, purely for ideological/political reasons. That choice is by no means a foregone conclusion.
Imagine what would happen if the IR regime chose a wiser course. Instead of spending time, money, thought and effort on anti-Israel propaganda, funding for groups to ensure that they attack Israel and the development of weapons to destroy Israel, imagine what would happen if Iran spent those same resources to make practical improvements in Iran’s own infrastructure.
So many Iranians are truly outstanding and wonderful people. The same is true of Israelis.
People can talk to each other through media like this. But governments do need to stop poisoning people’s minds.
Iran needs to banish the idea of a country being run by religious leaders. It needs strategic planners, people that look down the road 20 years and start moving toward goals for the betterment of all of its people. It needs to refine its own gasoline, for starters. It has become a “gas station nation” which exports oil to the rest of the world, yet imports over 40% of its own gasoline. There is talk of gasoline rationing being necessary in the coming year. WTH? Instead, build a nuclear plant? Do they even have electric cars yet?
Encouraging and financially supporting groups to fight Israel is coming from religious fanatics. How many everyday Iranians really care if the nations treasury is squandered on a never ending war against Israel? Why not just open up your wallets, take the money out, and toss it on the street?
Religious leaders and government are like gasoline and matches. All you get is one explosion after another. It was an interesting experiment, the past 30 years, but ultimately has ended in failure.
Ella,
When you go to war as a state you have a political goal which is not mere destruction – even Ghenghiz khan, famous for his rampage through the Asia, meant to politically unite his people by doing that. If we suppose that the TRIO’s goal is to bring the kind of “stability” which best suits their interests and they believe that this only can happen with an offensive war against the iranian state, simply “dropping” bombs won’t do it. They have to occupy, but everybody knows that they don’t have the means to do it. To “win” and make others believe that they “won” they have to “end” – as you say, Iran. But this will bring also the end of 60 so years of enormous effort to set-up the current international political framework. That is what I call “enormous loss”.
In reality, the only solution for US/UK is to go back to the old anglosaxon political methods: If you cant win against an adversary, just bring him in into the system (Baker-Hamilton); dont destroy the system.
Hayden,
just bring him into the system (baker-hamilton);don’t destroy the system
That is the main problem. We in the West like our system and we want to keep it that way. However, that’s not what the Islamic republic Wants. The Khomeinist Islamic Republic was founded on rejecting the world order. The Khomeinist Islamic Republic is driven by one overarching ultimate objective: To change the world system. And no this didn’t start with with 9/11. They are soldiers of allah not Iran or any other nation. They see nationalism as a pagan ritual.
Khomeini’s vision and Khameni’s vision for the world are one world under Islamic government…and to that end they have proceeded systematically and in a highly sophisticated and organized fashion over 29 years ago.
Where Rafsanjani and Khatami tried to redefine Islam to please the modern world, a world that is shaped and dominated by Western ideas, Khomeinist Ahmadinejad is showing us the true nature of the regime; the purest definition of the faith. He asserts, “Islam is an alternative to the current global system, not a candidate for becoming a small part of it.”
All the Islamic Republic needs in order to achieve this goal is to be able to use low intensity violence to supplement its financial, intelligence and organizational support for its allies. That is why Iran needs the bomb and– had concealed it’s nuclear program for 18 years–: to neutralize the conventional military superiority of the West, and continue to use terrorism and low intensity violence without the fear of escalation to high intensity conventional warfare.
The mullahs are very patient and think centuries ahead while the West’s vision is limited to a fixation on tolerance, freedom and democracy in the present. This aspect alone makes the West completely vulnerable and inferior in the conflict.
We have to face the fact that the Islamic republic’s ideology and doctrine is and has been moving toward fulfilling its original goals for over 27 years now to be a Supremacist power bent on acquiring domination over the world as it’s required by Khomeinism who made no secret of his conviction that his supremacist ideology should subjugate not just America, but the entire world: “Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males, provided they are not disabled or incapacitated, to prepare themselves for the conquest of countries so that the writ of Islam (Nab-e-Mohamadi “utopian society”)is obeyed in every country in the world… Iran is not attempting to acquire nukes for the purpose of protecting the people of Iran, but rather to keep on augmenting their oppressive power against their own subjects as well as against the neighborhood States. It’s a fight to keep Islam and the clerical status-quo relevant in the modern world as they face extinction in the age of globalization. Khomeini saw this danger to Islam over 50 years ago and decided to do something about it…This has nothing to do with our foreign policy in the ME….It’s a fight for survival of a religion.
I urge you to read Khomeini’s book “The Islamic Government”. It’s all in there.
Serendip,
You got one part correct: The path of war will make you loose the democracy too, besides other “enormous loss” that I mentioned before.
There is another truth, bakced by historical facts, which you forget: since at least the 17th century, no iranian state, be it represented by a monarchy or an IR have had any hegemonic vision beside what can be called the natural cultural and historical boundaries of the Iranian plateau. This can not be said about the Western world.
Great conversation in this thread so far.
As far as Russia goes, I trust their intelligence agencies about as much as I trust our own politically corrupted intelligence agencies. Two years ago the Soviet Foreign Intelligence Service’s chief called al-Qaeda an American myth to (paraphrase) “take advantage of military occupations in oil-rich Muslim countries”. One look at Iraq’s energy bill confirms we are taking advantage of the indispensable commodity, but al-Qaeda is not a myth. Then there is the problem of Russia being a mess internally, but that’s another story.
Do you at least consider it is possible this vision may change due to dissatisfaction with the existing world order? Emerging revisionist states are not constrained by historical patterns. Just ask Germany.
Hayden
It is hard to say what Genghis Khan had in mind when he tried to unite his people. I am not sure if there are documents which say he only wanted to unite his people or if, from the beginning, he aimed to carve an empire for himself. The destruction and horror which followed his ascent to power is famous, but was not an exception. At that time conquered people were slaughtered, mutilated, enslaved and raped, so that they would not rise against conquerors…everybody did that, he only did that on a larger scale.
Now, you assume that “TRIO” aims are the same and the interests of US, UK and Israel are the same. That is rather big assumption, particularly considering the fact that UK has as much interest in keeping “stability” as does EU and her interests are not different from other EU countries.
Nobody is talking about “offensive” war against IRI, everybody is talking about not allowing Iran to develop nuclear bombs. You seem to have forgotten (weak) UN sanctions against Iran and the IRI response to this sanctions. If UN sanctions will not work that will also mean that the UN can not enforce its resolutions and any country can do what it pleases without fear of retaliation. If that will be the case the “current international political framework” is/will be just a political gobbledygook.
You also seem not to have notice the reaction of other ME countries, most of whom fear of expansionist IRI policy and talk(KSA, Egypt, Jordan and others) now of acquiring nuclear deterrents in case Iran gets an A-bombs . The later would certainly make a mess of international agreements. Of course, they do look to their own interests, edging US and Israel to attack Iran, while at the same time talking of ummah, and bad, bad west.
If UN sanction would not work it is also not inconceivable that Iran will checkmate EU, and then where would EU be? Dancing to Iran tune for oil and gas, I guess.
To get back to your post, nobody is talking at the moment about attacking Iran, if that sanction will not work that would be different case. Nobody is talking about “stability” which best suits s/o interest, only about preventing Iran from developing nuclear bombs. Nobody is talking about occupying the country, only about destruction of nuclear facilities which could be done without occupying Iran.
Of course the best plans of men and mice do get awry, so the future will show what will happen, but it seems to me that you are assuming free-for-all war when/if US/Israel bomb nuclear facilities in Iran, and that is far from certain.
As for bringing back IRI into the system, I think Serendip gave you an answer (not that I agree with everything she wrote, but in my opinion she is mostly right).
Smileme
Firstly, any attack to Iran will cause IR regime to escalate it to a real big war with anything related to the west. Definitely Strait of Hurmoz is the first place for fighting and then it might go to the other countries.
I don’t think that IRI will try that, if they do then I think KSA will answer, but not militarily. NON-military answer could be worse for IRI.
Secondly, if the west attacks Iran, it will make a confrontation with the east that includes China and probably Russia.
You seem not to know Putin and Russia, they will protest and then they will keep quiet. Their oil and gas will get dearer and dearer. Don’t think they will attack the west just because you will be attacked. You will just give them monopoly on the supply of oil and gas to the EU, I am sure they will prefer that over the war.
As for China, they might help IRI, but they also have their own politics and I assume they will think twice before attacking the west.
Hayden: You’re wrong. I’m too pressed for time to look for links for you. It was only a few years ago when Saadam offered a peace treaty to Khomeini after a couple of years of fighting with Iran. Khomeini refused the offer. He said the way to Jerusalem is through Karbala…and if we have to will fight for 20 more years (I’m of course paraphrasing). If you’re interested look in my archives on my blog to find the related links. I’m pressed for time….
Serendip,
Since you are pressed for time just a short answer:
I consider the “Middle-East” part of the power projection zone of the state established on the iranian plateau. And I consider thiss state as potentially a regional power.
Lesly
I don’t see any sign that goes into this direction.
After almost 8 years of revolutionary zeal, the IRI turned into national interets mixed with some sort of islamic global vision.
Today, the long term goals are economic and developmental. For that to go forward they will need a stable “Middle-East” with trade and economic routes open and functioning. On the other hand Israel’s interests are totally opposite.
Ella,
As you said, it seems that you have no idea about what Iran means and what real military action against Iran would look like. So, let me tell you some facts about the differences between Iran and Iraq.
- Iran is more than 5 times bigger than Poland and about 4 times bigger than Iraq by size.
- Iran is also more than two times bigger than Iraq by population.
- According to CIA factbook, of this population, only 18 million people are available manpower for military service; this is 3 times bigger than the same factor for Iraq.
- Unlike Iraq, Iran is all full of mountains: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=iran&layer=&ie=UTF8&z=5&ll=32.427908,53.688046&spn=18.823661,40.869141&t=h&om=1
- And the most important thing is the huge cultural difference between the two countries. Iraqis are more religious and very less nationalist. Iranians are less religious and extremely nationalist people. Iraq-Iran war showed that even if Iranians are 100% angry with their government, if anyone tries to invade their land, they really become union.
- The US/UK attack to Afganistan and Iraq made Iran even more and more powerful.
- IR had enough time to learn the weakpoints of their enemies.
- They had at least 4 years time to develop their military machine and intelligent.
- In addition they could successfully test a symbolic war with Israel and they showed that Israel is easy to access by missiles.
- Iran sits in top of two large water, the Persian Gulf and the Oman sea. And not only Strait of Hurmoz belongs to Iran but right in middle of this narrow way, Iran has several islans like Abu Moosa that is basically used as a military base.
I don’t say that Iran is undefeatable. But this is going to be an extreme military action for the west. With a simple calculation, if the US alone spent more than 400 billion dollar for Iraq war, the US-Iran war will cost them at least five times more. If they pay so much for these two countries, do you think they would share such an expensive treasure with China, Russia, or even EU who have not done anything but supporting IR regime?
Ella,
Genghiz khan was a charismatic political leader like many others (Modern days examples: Roosvelt, Hitler, Lenin, Churchill, Khomeiny, Ghandi etc..) and war is one path that politics can take to accede to its goals.
The interests of Israel and Anglosaxons are not the same anymore. Thats why I was cautious to distinguish them in some parts of my discussions here.
Israel, as a small country in the “Middle-East”, is basically over-extended. Its interests is, as french will say, “zizanie” among its sourounding countries. The anglosaxons, on the other hand, like Iran, need stability in the region (each of them for their own reason). I believe that, today, Iran and America have more common interets than US and Israel. But somehow they are just dancing to the tune of Israel’s interests.
As far as the price of oil and the reaction of other countries are concerned, they prefer the current situation were the oil price is reasonably high to, when, a hypothetical US controlled Iran and Irak, will completely brake the Opec and therefore the semi-control they now have on oil prices.
It is certain that Iran possess the whole nuclear fuel cycle and intend to go full industrial. The TRIO is saying that this is a no no (even though NPT is saying that this is Iran’s right). I dont see any way for the TRIO, other than the INCLUSION alternative, to avoid military intervention.
Hayden: You sound like the official spokesperson of Iran. You seem to be privy to rather intimate information about Iran.
Serendip
Don’t go into this kind of game. I am honestly giving my opinion. I don’t have any paty affiliation.
Hayden: After almost 8 years of revolutionary zeal, the IRI turned into national interests mixed with some sort of Islamic global vision.
I honestly don’t know what you’re trying to say here. Do you mean the IRI turned to international interests?
Hayden: Today, the long term goals are economic and developmental.
A highly skeptical statement, given that economic prosperity and representative democracy go hand in hand. You cannot unleash creative solutions when the population is forcefully cosigned to supporting religious/ideological restrictions on the population. This is as true for Saudi Arabia as it is true for Iran.
Hayden: For that to go forward they will need a stable “Middle-East” with trade and economic routes open and functioning.
If by stable Middle East you mean a new Shiite Pan Arab majority, I agree.
Hayden: On the other hand Israel’s interests are totally opposite.
Israel’s interests are self-serving, as it should be. This is true for every state on the planet, let alone a Middle East state.
Hayden, to Ella: The TRIO is saying that this is a no no (even though NPT is saying that this is Iran’s right).
Would you care to cite a source in English please? Seeing as Iran stopped cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the watchdog group tasked with informing the U.N. of NPT violations, I find your smooth dismissal remarkable, but unconvincing.
Arg. Kamangir, my post was eaten again. Could you look for it please?
Smileme
As you said, it seems that you have no idea about what Iran means
Where did I say that?
As for the comparison of Poland, Iraq and Iran………….allow me to thank you for alerting me to the facts I already have known for quite some time. As you seem to be hang up on comparisons I am sure you would be delighted to know that area-wise Canada is 2nd, USA is 3rd, Iran is 18th and Poland is 69th.
you have no idea about…….what real military action against Iran would look like
Neither have you.
As for your discussion regarding the differences between Iraq and Iran, look at my thanks to you, few paragraphs above.
he US/UK attack to Afghanistan and Iraq made Iran even more and more powerful.
That, of course, is quite true, however “more powerful” means exactly what it says and begs the question “how powerful was Iran before getting “more powerful”?”
IR had enough time to learn the weakpoints of their enemies.
time learning curve is usually true for both sides. Hmm, you do imply that some countries are IRI enemies, even if they done nothing to Iran?
They had at least 4 years time to develop their military machine and intelligent
They had 4 years, unfortunately the necessary supplies sometimes were lacking, and propaganda being what it is, there is a difference between reality and wishful thinking. As for intelligence, it seems that often good intelligence get distorted traveling from the source to the certain-of-his-rightfulness recipient.
In addition they could successfully test a symbolic war with Israel and they showed that Israel is easy to access by missiles.
I wish I could tell it to Lebanese. Proxy wars are of necessity different from no-holds-barred wars, and I do not wish on Lebanon to test the Israeli answer to the next Hizbullah/Iran attack. I also am in doubt whether Hizbullah will get a free hand from other Lebanese who know them now for proxy-fighters for Iran. As for Hamas ….well…..do you mean you got another proxy fighters for Iran?.
But this is going to be an extreme military action for the west. With a simple calculation, if the US alone spent more than 400 billion dollar for Iraq war, the US-Iran war will cost them at least five times more
I would not be so sure about it, after all if US will start to bomb Iran it does not need to go with their army to Iran, nobody in the US or in the West want to rule Iran or impose western government on iranians. It would be rather stupid, don’t you think so? You are forgetting that US wants to stop IRI from building nuclear bombs.
(Of course KSA would like IRI gone, Jordan would not be adverse to take you down a notch and Iraqis would prefer Najaf to be more important shi’a learning center than Qom).
If they pay so much for these two countries, do you think they would share such an expensive treasure with China, Russia, or even EU who have not done anything but supporting IR regime?
Well, EU did not support IRI government, it only wanted their business, Russia supports IRI only as far as its interest goes, and China needs oil. In reality only Chavez and couple of small dictators support IRI unconditionally.
As for sharing expensive treasure……..you do predict destruction of IRI , don’t you? This “expensive treasure” you are talking about belongs to Iranians’ and always will be Iranians’, which is what majority of people and governments in the west think. And by majority of governments I mean “majority” including the governments of US, UK and Israel.
Hayden
Israel, as a small country in the “Middle-Eastâ€, is basically over-extended
Hmm………and what exactly do you mean by over-extension? As for Israel “zizanie” with surrounding countries I think that you rather have it backwards.
I believe that, today, Iran and America have more common interests than US and Israel. But somehow they are just dancing to the tune of Israel’s interests.
Sadly, it is a well known fact that jews control the world, what can a poor (non-jewish) westerner do but to submit silently. Why fight against inevitable?
Ella,
May be it’s time for you to switch off your TV, take a leave and go out from your home, travel to some new places and see other people more closely.
Here is my scenario: US bombs Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran attacks oil carrier ships both from the sea, the air, and the land – US responds back with more bombing, Iran responds by attacking Israel, US attack more military bases in Iran, Iran will use proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine and makes a mess out of Israel. US/Nato/others go to an extensive war against Iran, and its proxies in the region. They should immediately bring down the regime by moving more soldiers from the south, west, and east. Bloodshed starts and finally the IR government collapses. Is that all? of course not! oil price will become more than 100 dollars a barrel (and even more) Chinese and Russians will take this issue to the UN. UN will not be able to solve anything, conflicts get higher and higher between the west and the east. From inside, Iran becomes worse than Iraq. Now it’s turn of Iranian people. Civil war will start. The new government will be stablished by an election while western soldiers are in our streets! some soldiers do some dirty things and news gets spread in all the world (a rape, or homicide). Hatred becomes more and more and the only people in the region who never practiced suicide bombing will start doing it. The only people who were going against Islamic ideaology will now become union by other muslims; arabs, africans, pakistanis, and indians. Hatred gets even more and more and the world gets messed up.
———————————————-
Now your scenario based on your own comments:
… after all if US will start to bomb Iran it does not need to go with their army to Iran, nobody in the US or in the West want to rule Iran or impose western government on iranians.
So! the US bombs Iran. IR doesn’t take any action and suddenly the government collapses :D The nice guys in the west are sooo happy seeing Iranians stablishing a new government by themselves but they don’t interfere in it at all!
It would be rather stupid, don’t you think so?
Yes, indeed it is!
You are forgetting that US wants to stop IRI from building nuclear bombs.
And you are forgetting that this is not an easy job to stop them. Everyone would be much happier if it was as simple as dropping a couple of bombs on only nuclear facilites. But this is only a dream, a kind of too simplistic analysis from some news channels mainly targeted for naive people.
Lesly,
I really don’t know why it doesn’t like you. Sorry… :)
Smileme
Your scenario is quite “interesting”, however
1) Shahab 3 missiles are capable of striking Israel targests but Israel have Arrow 2 missiles capable of intercepting these missiles. I am fairly sure that US and Israel will be prepared to employ air defence if/when Iran will try to employ Shahab. Further, countries like Ukraine and Bulgaria, not to mention Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey might get rather nervous if Iran will fire these missiles, as these countries do fall in the range of Shahab 3 missiles.
2) Iran proxy (Hizbullah) may have their own trouble in Lebanon. At the moment many people in Lebanon, particularly sunni and some christians are getting very upset with Hizbullah and with one of its sponsors, Syria, over Hairi trial. If Hizbullah will attack Israel without provocation there is a large possibility that Hizbullah will not get support it had before and might be fighting on two fronts.
3) Syria might get trouble from different direction, i.e. Turkey, who might want to get back some of the disputed lands. Of course, Turkey, who belong to NATO and whose majority is sunni might also listen to KSA who will not look quietly when its oil trade get upset by Iranian forces.
4) Israel is capable of holding their own against Syria and Hamas, do not forget that they would be fighting not in Lebanon, but in Israel. That would make a major difference in their performance and their quality of fighting.
In the above scenario I do not see US boots on the ground.
Of course that is a scenario and the reality might be quite different, but I do not believe that KSA will allow anybody to stop their oil trade and I do not think that Turkey, Jordan or KSA over whose territories missiles will be fired will sit quiet and allow Iran to do what they will. They might dislike US, they might even cheer if Iran will try to destroy Israel, but I think their first question will be “will our country be next?”
5) You are assuming that the overwhelming aim of the US/UK & Co is to destroy IRI. It may, of course, be their wish, but I think they would settle on destroying the missile silos and nuclear facilites. You are also assuming apocaliptic events in the wake of the attack. It is certainly possible but far from certain.
6) You are also assuming that Russia and China will bring the matter to the UN if US/Israel attack Iran, but they did agreed on sanctions which many thought will never happen. They might suprise you and fail to go to UN.
As for Russians………. $100 a barrel would be a dream come true. Main part of their government’s income is based on money from oil and gas.
China might protest, but well, it really would depend on KSA upping their oil production. You assume KSA will not do it.
7) The only people who were going against Islamic ideaology will now become union by other muslims; arabs, africans, pakistanis, and indians.
Now, that I do not understand. You mean muslims, arabs, africans, indians and pakistanis will become as one, united. Or perhaps that ummah will triumph? Or mahdi will come? Or what?
8) - You are forgetting that US wants to stop IRI from building nuclear bombs.
- And you are forgetting that this is not an easy job to stop them.
Well, there are a UN sanctions, but it seems you assume that sanctions will not stop IRI and
so propose to do nothing until IRI develops Shahab 4 and nuclear bombs and we will all get united IRI’s way, am I right? Otherwise we will get horror and terror and apocalypse (or equivalent).
OH, and by the way why are you (and Hayden) so sure that UN sanctions will not work and that US will surely attack Iran? Insiders knowledge?
9)Everyone would be much happier if it was as simple as dropping a couple of bombs on only nuclear facilites. But this is only a dream, a kind of too simplistic analysis from some news channels mainly targeted for naive people.
You noticed? I assume you speak from experience.
ps. 8) should be point no. 8.
Abswer to #24 (lesly)
1- I meant that they sat down, thought a little bit, devised a new strategy based on National Interest: i.e. they saw that they can not export revolution to other muslim places.
2- Your statement is simply false. Counter-example -> China. For more detailed discussion on that let me know.
3- From Ghengis Khan to Bush opening up trade and investment routes never needed Ideology. The opposite might even be true. That is the case for Iran today.
4- I am not sure Israel interests, the way they are expressed by “likunite” are “self-serving”. But even if we suppose that, it does not contradict my statement.
5- The IAEA safegard agreement with Iran (link will be provided soon), permit the possession of the entire nuclear fuel cycle to Iran. The link you are providing is not saying that Iran violated this agreement. Iran was basically never in violation of its agreement with IAEA, breach maybe but violation never. Iran has the right to leave NPT with a 90 days notice. That is in the Treaty itself. Read it please.
Hayeden: Why does Iran want to be regional power when its economy and oil production and refinining capacities are in tatters (40% live below poverty level) and the GDP is less than $3000 and the income per capita is less than $8000 (lower than many countries without oil). Iran has no non-oil industry to speak of. That in of itself makes Iran’s sovereignty and a its future as a democracy and stable country highly unlikely. Nuclear weapons have not made Pakistan or india into powerful countris with hegemonic aspirations.
In order to be a regional power and maintain it, you have to have the economic means to support you mini-empire. Iran doesn’t meet any of the criteria that make a nation a regional power. You can categorize the islamic republic as a regional bully (proxy wars, low-intensity terrorist activities, training militias and death squads).
Yes, the gangs in East Los Angeles are considered dangerous and powerful in their own circle too when defending their turf. And yes, they may venture into Beverly Hills area and destroy a few properties, but that doesn’t make them a powerhouse. They’re just thugs and bullys.
Iran is in a puffed up state like a frightened cat. Cats puff their fur up to make them look bigger when fighting predators. It is tragic that this game of make-believe ‘superpower’ has gone into their head and they really believe their own claptrap.
You can be rest assured even if the United States left the entire Middle East tomorrow, China and Russia will never allow Iran to become any kind of a power in the region. And you know China and Russia are not as nice as the United States…So, Iran is on a fool’s errand at the expense of future generation of Iranians.
Serendip,
Lets start with what you said at the end since I think you got everything upside down.
China is not in the same league as Iran. They are competing with US and EU (if we never see a political EU materialize). For the next generation they will look at Iran as a mild help against the West and not as adversaries. Russia is in sharp decline demographically, the only thing helping them out is the high price of commodity. they are not natural friends of Iran. Since the Safavid times til now, all the rulers in Iran knew these facts. Nobody in Iran never had or have any “superiority” feeling over the status of Iran in the region. Take a look at the reaction of the UK in her navy personnel affair and you will see who was “puffed-up”.
The gang metaphore is a good one. The only objection I will have is that if you are using such a metaphore apply it to all the players (which I think its the case) otherwise its like denying reason, logic and history.
Actually, you display lots of the same logical rigidness in the begining of your message: There is no established rule of becoming a regional or global or whatever power. USSR was a global power without having any suitable capitalist infrastructure and China aims to become a global power withouth having a Democratic system of governance.
For the over-flow of menaningless and most of the time inaccurate statistics that you display, I refer you to the CIA factbook and the comparison tables they have for all these statistics. They, at least, do a more serious job than you do.
Ella,
I wasn’t talking about jews, which I consider generally nicer, funnier, more educated and closer to my intellectual level than average American.
Now back to the facts.
When Israeli driven conflicts were limited to the geographic area of the Arab league and the the nationalistic ideology of the “ennemy” (Baath, Nasser etc..), it was possible to contain the set of interests of the state of Israel inside the much bigger set of the Godfather protector. Meaning that the instability, an inherent purpose of israeli policy, in the “Near-East” was containable in the stability of the commodity trade routes in the “Middle-East”, which was the US strategic goal.
Now that, for some reason I would say dating before the Iranian revolution, the nature of resistance to israeli occupation has slowly changed from nationalist and socialist to islamic, and the goegraphical area of israel “pre-occuppation” has grown from “near-East” to the “greater Middle-East”, I would say that the interests of the state of Israel are more and more outside the sphere of interests of the big godfather. The whole hoopla about Iran being the 4th reich and Ahmadinejad the new hitler is about this catastrophic, for Israel obviously, trend of events.
This respond to both your points.
I think you’re in serious need of glasses, those facts are from CIA Factbooks. Check them out (I have the sources on my blog with the links to the CIA site)….You sound like a little emperor wanna be…
Your arguments are not in good faith. You already have a well-established point of view, and it’s pretty much that of the mullah’s regime. You sound like all the other so-called appeasers parroting official theocratic doctrine and indoctrination. Reasoned argument and evidence means nothing to you if it doesn’t corroborate his self-serving view of things. You’re clearly You probably have a lot at stake to lose if the regime is overthrown so it’s understandable. Your knowledge of facts is weak, not to say nonexistent. Your understanding of issues is very poor, not to say idiotic. Your command of concepts(communist hoopla) is opaque, not to say entirely muddled. Lastly, I don’t appreciate your anti-semetic and anti-American rhetorics. Experience has taught me arguing with a professional propagandist is useless. so consider yourself ignored.
Serendip jan,
I left Iran at the age of 10. I am 40 now. All my familly wealth are here in US and I don’t have any investment or money in Iran. I am married have 3 american kids my wife is a surgeon and myself I make pretty good money here. I love american people.
Please put the link here so everybody can see who is correct.
So long.
State of economy (comprehensive analysis)
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
Rank Country GDP (PPP)
$ per capita
1 Luxembourg $69,800
2 Norway $42,364
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
26 Brunei 24,948
27 New Zealand 24,797
28 Israel 23,474
29 Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands 22,750
30 Greece 22,392
31 Slovenia 21,808
32 Bahrain 21,565
33 Cyprus 21,177
34 South Korea 20,590
35 The Bahamas 20,076
36 Malta 19,739
37 Portugal 19,335
38 Czech Republic 18,341
39 Barbados 17,610
40 Oman 16,862
41 Hungary 16,823
42 Equatorial Guinea 16,507
43 Estonia 16,414
44 Kuwait 16,301
45 Slovakia 16,041
46 Saudi Arabia 15,229
47 Saint Kitts and Nevis 14,649
48 Trinidad and Tobago 14,258
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
52 Mauritius 12,895
53 Latvia 12,666
54 Croatia 12,324
55 South Africa 12,161
56 Seychelles 12,059
57 Chile 11,937
58 Libya 11,624
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
64 Costa Rica 10,434
65 Mexico 10,186
66 Bulgaria 9,223
67 Romania 8,785
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
79 Belarus 7,711
80 Maldives 7,675
81 Dominican Republic 7,627
82 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 7,493
83 Namibia 7,478
84 Colombia 7,326
85 Panama 7,283
86 Ukraine 7,213
87 People’s Republic of China 7,198
88 Algeria 7,189
89 Gabon 7,055
90 Lebanon 6,681
91 Dominica 6,520
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
40% below Poverty level:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pop_bel_pov_lin-economy-population-below-poverty-line
Eventual collapse of Iran oil industry as an exporter by the year 2015:
Note: Iran has to import 40% of its oil ($10billion per year because the mullahs did not invest in the antiquated oil infrastructure. there are several posts regarding oil and petro-islam in my blog)
http://fleetingperusal.blogspot.com/2007/01/eventual-collapse-of-irans-oil.html#links
Iran: Rock Bottom in Quality of Life Index
2007 Quality of Life Index:
Iran ranks 190th in Quality of Life Index from 195 countries.
http://www.il-ireland.com/il/qofl07/
State of economy
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
Rank Country GDP (PPP)
$ per capita
1 Luxembourg $69,800
2 Norway $42,364
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
26 Brunei 24,948
27 New Zealand 24,797
28 Israel 23,474
29 Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands 22,750
30 Greece 22,392
31 Slovenia 21,808
32 Bahrain 21,565
33 Cyprus 21,177
34 South Korea 20,590
35 The Bahamas 20,076
36 Malta 19,739
37 Portugal 19,335
38 Czech Republic 18,341
39 Barbados 17,610
40 Oman 16,862
41 Hungary 16,823
42 Equatorial Guinea 16,507
43 Estonia 16,414
44 Kuwait 16,301
45 Slovakia 16,041
46 Saudi Arabia 15,229
47 Saint Kitts and Nevis 14,649
48 Trinidad and Tobago 14,258
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
52 Mauritius 12,895
53 Latvia 12,666
54 Croatia 12,324
55 South Africa 12,161
56 Seychelles 12,059
57 Chile 11,937
58 Libya 11,624
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
64 Costa Rica 10,434
65 Mexico 10,186
66 Bulgaria 9,223
67 Romania 8,785
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
79 Belarus 7,711
80 Maldives 7,675
81 Dominican Republic 7,627
82 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 7,493
83 Namibia 7,478
84 Colombia 7,326
85 Panama 7,283
86 Ukraine 7,213
87 People’s Republic of China 7,198
88 Algeria 7,189
89 Gabon 7,055
90 Lebanon 6,681
91 Dominica 6,520
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
40% below Poverty level:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pop_bel_pov_lin-economy-population-below-poverty-line
Eventual collapse of Iran oil industry by the year 2015:
http://fleetingperusal.blogspot.com/2007/01/eventual-collapse-of-irans-oil.html#links
Iran: Rock Bottom in Quality of Life Index
2007 Quality of Life Index:
Iran ranks 190th in Quality of Life Index from 195 countries.
http://www.il-ireland.com/il/qofl07/
State of economy
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
26 Brunei 24,948
27 New Zealand 24,797
28 Israel 23,474
29 Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands 22,750
30 Greece 22,392
31 Slovenia 21,808
32 Bahrain 21,565
33 Cyprus 21,177
34 South Korea 20,590
35 The Bahamas 20,076
36 Malta 19,739
37 Portugal 19,335
38 Czech Republic 18,341
39 Barbados 17,610
40 Oman 16,862
41 Hungary 16,823
42 Equatorial Guinea 16,507
43 Estonia 16,414
44 Kuwait 16,301
45 Slovakia 16,041
46 Saudi Arabia 15,229
47 Saint Kitts and Nevis 14,649
48 Trinidad and Tobago 14,258
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
52 Mauritius 12,895
53 Latvia 12,666
54 Croatia 12,324
55 South Africa 12,161
56 Seychelles 12,059
57 Chile 11,937
58 Libya 11,624
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
64 Costa Rica 10,434
65 Mexico 10,186
66 Bulgaria 9,223
67 Romania 8,785
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
40% below Poverty level:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pop_bel_pov_lin-economy-population-below-poverty-line
Eventual collapse of Iran oil industry by the year 2015:
http://fleetingperusal.blogspot.com/2007/01/eventual-collapse-of-irans-oil.html#links
Iran: Rock Bottom in Quality of Life Index
2007 Quality of Life Index:
Iran ranks 190th in Quality of Life Index from 195 countries.
http://www.il-ireland.com/il/qofl07/
State of economy
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
26 Brunei 24,948
27 New Zealand 24,797
28 Israel 23,474
29 Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands 22,750
30 Greece 22,392
31 Slovenia 21,808
32 Bahrain 21,565
33 Cyprus 21,177
34 South Korea 20,590
….
39 Barbados 17,610
40 Oman 16,862
41 Hungary 16,823
42 Equatorial Guinea 16,507
43 Estonia 16,414
44 Kuwait 16,301
45 Slovakia 16,041
46 Saudi Arabia 15,229
47 Saint Kitts and Nevis 14,649
48 Trinidad and Tobago 14,258
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
52 Mauritius 12,895
53 Latvia 12,666
54 Croatia 12,324
55 South Africa 12,161
56 Seychelles 12,059
57 Chile 11,937
58 Libya 11,624
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
64 Costa Rica 10,434
65 Mexico 10,186
66 Bulgaria 9,223
67 Romania 8,785
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
40% below Poverty level:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pop_bel_pov_lin-economy-population-below-poverty-line
Eventual collapse of Iran oil industry by the year 2015:
http://fleetingperusal.blogspot.com/2007/01/eventual-collapse-of-irans-oil.html#links
Iran: Rock Bottom in Quality of Life Index
2007 Quality of Life Index:
Iran ranks 190th in Quality of Life Index from 195 countries.
http://www.il-ireland.com/il/qofl07/
State of economy
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
40% below Poverty level:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pop_bel_pov_lin-economy-population-below-poverty-line
Eventual collapse of Iran oil industry by the year 2015:
http://fleetingperusal.blogspot.com/2007/01/eventual-collapse-of-irans-oil.html#links
Iran: Rock Bottom in Quality of Life Index
2007 Quality of Life Index:
Iran ranks 190th in Quality of Life Index from 195 countries.
http://www.il-ireland.com/il/qofl07/
I’ve been trying to post several times. I hope this one works.
State of economy
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
26 Brunei 24,948
27 New Zealand 24,797
28 Israel 23,474
29 Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands 22,750
30 Greece 22,392
31 Slovenia 21,808
32 Bahrain 21,565
33 Cyprus 21,177
34 South Korea 20,590
35 The Bahamas 20,076
36 Malta 19,739
37 Portugal 19,335
38 Czech Republic 18,341
39 Barbados 17,610
40 Oman 16,862
41 Hungary 16,823
42 Equatorial Guinea 16,507
43 Estonia 16,414
44 Kuwait 16,301
45 Slovakia 16,041
46 Saudi Arabia 15,229
47 Saint Kitts and Nevis 14,649
48 Trinidad and Tobago 14,258
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
52 Mauritius 12,895
53 Latvia 12,666
54 Croatia 12,324
55 South Africa 12,161
56 Seychelles 12,059
57 Chile 11,937
58 Libya 11,624
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
64 Costa Rica 10,434
65 Mexico 10,186
66 Bulgaria 9,223
67 Romania 8,785
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
40% below Poverty level:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pop_bel_pov_lin-economy-population-below-poverty-line
Eventual collapse of Iran oil industry by the year 2015:
http://fleetingperusal.blogspot.com/2007/01/eventual-collapse-of-irans-oil.html#links
Iran: Rock Bottom in Quality of Life Index
2007 Quality of Life Index:
Iran ranks 190th in Quality of Life Index from 195 countries.
http://www.il-ireland.com/il/qofl07/
State of economy
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
Rank Country GDP (PPP)
$ per capita
1 Luxembourg $69,800
2 Norway $42,364
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
26 Brunei 24,948
27 New Zealand 24,797
28 Israel 23,474
29 Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands 22,750
30 Greece 22,392
31 Slovenia 21,808
32 Bahrain 21,565
33 Cyprus 21,177
34 South Korea 20,590
35 The Bahamas 20,076
36 Malta 19,739
37 Portugal 19,335
38 Czech Republic 18,341
39 Barbados 17,610
40 Oman 16,862
41 Hungary 16,823
42 Equatorial Guinea 16,507
43 Estonia 16,414
44 Kuwait 16,301
45 Slovakia 16,041
46 Saudi Arabia 15,229
47 Saint Kitts and Nevis 14,649
48 Trinidad and Tobago 14,258
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
52 Mauritius 12,895
53 Latvia 12,666
54 Croatia 12,324
55 South Africa 12,161
56 Seychelles 12,059
57 Chile 11,937
58 Libya 11,624
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
64 Costa Rica 10,434
65 Mexico 10,186
66 Bulgaria 9,223
67 Romania 8,785
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
79 Belarus 7,711
80 Maldives 7,675
81 Dominican Republic 7,627
82 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 7,493
83 Namibia 7,478
84 Colombia 7,326
85 Panama 7,283
86 Ukraine 7,213
87 People’s Republic of China 7,198
88 Algeria 7,189
89 Gabon 7,055
90 Lebanon 6,681
91 Dominica 6,520
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
State of economy
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
Rank Country GDP (PPP)
$ per capita
1 Luxembourg $69,800
2 Norway $42,364
3 United States $41,399
…
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
58 Libya 11,624
…
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
….
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
……
85 Panama 7,283
86 Ukraine 7,213
87 People’s Republic of China 7,198
88 Algeria 7,189
89 Gabon 7,055
90 Lebanon 6,681
91 Dominica 6,520
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
State of economy (comprehensive analysis)
http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2007/January/Ahmadinejad110/index.html
Rank Country GDP (PPP)
$ per capita
1 Luxembourg $69,800
2 Norway $42,364
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html
Hayden
There are couple of things you take for granted. The first one is that conflicts between arabs and Israel are driven by Israel, not by its neighbours. The second one, directly following the above is that instability in the ME is an inherent purpose of the Israeli policy. The third one is that Godfather is US instead of, lets say, Russia. It seems that former USSR was the first country who acknowledged Israel and it was USSR who helped Israel at the beginning. However, even rejecting that, all your post is consistent if and only if three assumptions underlying your arguments are correct, and they are not.
Now for your second paragraph. It was not Israel who said to destroy IRI but the other way round. It is not US whose people shout “death to Iranâ€and whose president wants his students to steal blueprints of scientific discoveries from Iran. Israel and US might have differences of policies, but both countries have to deal with a person who leads its people in chanting “death to America, death to Israel†and whose policies directly threaten citizens of both countries. That president (as well as Iran rahbar, who offers the like statements) makes policies of both countries similar with regard to IRI.
Regarding the expression “Greater Middle Eastâ€, is it a common phrase in Iran (or perhaps in Iranian diaspora)?
Leaving Iran at the age of 10, does not necessarily mean that one can not have a pro IRI stand or that one does not intensely dislike Israel. So your point regarding your views just because you live now in USA is moot.
FYI, there are some people who love Canadian people, live in Canada, came to Canada early in their life, but wanted to change……things. You may have seen them last year on TV, during trial in Toronto, accused of trying to bomb governmental buildings.
Hayden: “1- I meant that they sat down, thought a little bit, devised a new strategy based on National Interest: i.e. they saw that they can not export revolution to other Muslim places.â€
I see. Is Iran going to halt supporting material to Hezbollah any day now?
Hayden: “2- Your statement is simply false. Counter-example -> China. For more detailed discussion on that let me know.â€
Well, are you disagreeing with me or not when I wrote “You cannot unleash creative solutions when the population is forcefully cosigned to supporting religious/ideological restrictions on the population� Because the forceful exclusion of religious movements in China, like Turkey, does not invalidate the religious tyranny that comes when the incestuous relationship between church and state is defended.
Hayden: “3- From Genghis Khan to Bush opening up trade and investment routes never needed Ideology. The opposite might even be true. That is the case for Iran today.â€
Why would any U.S. president have to resort to Genghis Khan tactics when U.S. interests are already overrepresented in the Bretton Woods Trifecta (International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, and World Bank)? When Congress passes illiberal economic policies like imposing trade tariffs and passing farm subsidies to the tune of ten billion dollars a year—to the financial ruin of struggling farmers of nascent democracies across the world—the U.S. can simply absorb any fine the WTO throws at us. To be honest, if the U.S. invaded Iraq foremost for access to that market the occupation and continued operations would not have be so damn incompetent, so hands off.
Hayden: “4- I am not sure Israel interests, the way they are expressed by ‘likunite’ are ‘self-serving’. But even if we suppose that, it does not contradict my statement.â€
You wrote: “For [Iranian economic and developmental interests] to go forward they will need a stable ‘Middle-East’ with trade and economic routes open and functioning. On the other hand Israel’s interests are totally opposite.†First of all I do not support Israel’s expansionist policies, however stunted they may be for the time being. However, I think you fail to notice that Iran’s opposition to the very existence of the state of Israel is revisionist in nature. No, the powers that be (a.k.a. the U.N.) should not have “created†Israel, but that’s why they are the power that be and that’s why Iran is a revisionist state.
Additionally, not all state interests are peaceful in nature. I can admit that about the U.S., you could admit that about Iran.
Hayden: “5- The IAEA safeguard agreement with Iran (link will be provided soon), permit the possession of the entire nuclear fuel cycle to Iran… Iran has the right to leave NPT with a 90 days notice. That is in the Treaty itself. Read it please.â€
The IAEA is not concerned about Iran’s rhetoric because is seeking light-water reactors; it isn’t. Yes, I’m well aware any nation can freely leave NPT and subsequently put an end to any forthcoming economic/developmental assistance that comes with the treaty. I just don’t think foreign states providing that assistance are being unfair when they comb through demarcated channels in the Iranian to figure out what exactly Iran wants to do, because they would rather not continue providing Iran with the assistance they are obligated to provide until the last minute, when Iran states clearly and unequivocally that it is done with the NPT. If Iran wants to pursue non-peaceful nuclear ambitions I am all for them declaring they are done with the NPT and be done with it. That is all the NPT requires, and they owe the international community that much honesty for the assistance the community has provided in helping Iran meet energy needs.
“channels in the Iranian” should read, channels in the Iranian government. Sorry about so many typos.
Ella,
7) The only people who were going against Islamic ideaology will now become union by other muslims; arabs, africans, pakistanis, and indians.
Now, that I do not understand. You mean muslims, arabs, africans, indians and pakistanis will become as one, united. Or perhaps that ummah will triumph? Or mahdi will come? Or what?
Iranians are the only people in the region who are going against Islamic idealogy unlike the other muslim nation who are becoming more fanatic. There has been no Iranian citizen doing a suicide bombing or individuals who do any terrorism act by own. Compare this with let say morrocans, pakistanis, and ofcourse saudis who are creating horrible terrorist without any support from their governments. All the Iranian terrorism acts have been organized by the IR regime not by individual idealogic fanatism.
The main reason for Iranian not doing suicide bombing is that they are not as religious as other muslim countries (mainly sunnis). Their religious belief is not that much to make them kill themselves for a stupid idea.
What I am saying is that, another war can create more hatred and cause Iranians join the other nations. Is that clear now? this again shows that although you are really studying about Iran but your knowledge about Iranians is limited to the news, otherwise my sentences wouldn’t make you that confused to think about Mahdi, etc.
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Well, there are a UN sanctions, but it seems you assume that sanctions will not stop IRI and
so propose to do nothing until IRI develops Shahab 4 and nuclear bombs and we will all get united IRI’s way, am I right? Otherwise we will get horror and terror and apocalypse (or equivalent).
UN sanctions are not new. Again this shows that your knowledge about Iran is limited to the news after the iraq-war. People like me and Kamangir (but not Surendip of course) were grown in sanctions. Do you know how it feels like buying meat, rice, oil, etc. with coupons for at least 10 years? Iranians passed this time without a problem. This is not all, they were losing at least 600,000 lovely young people at the same time, they were oppressed by the government, losing their freedom and happiness every day, staying in lines for hours and hours, everyday and everyday, only to buy basic food items. They were living in Red Sirens for years, witnessing bombardments 4 times a night.
Iranians do not expect much from their lives. Within a few years after the revolution they lost every thing, after 3 decades they learned to live without any support from outside world. Because Americans didn’t exist for them and europeans were best friends of their dictator and criminal government. This is why the IR government is so arrogant because they know thay can simply sacrifice the people.
OH, and by the way why are you (and Hayden) so sure that UN sanctions will not work and that US will surely attack Iran? Insiders knowledge?
I never said that. We are discussing, right? like mathematics, you first assume something and then discuss based on that big “IF” that could be simply impossible. However, I still think that the best way for American government is to repeat the same successful practice that they did about Poland in time of Raegan. Support the people in the streets and they will do the job for you. Messing up with the people will make everything much more complicated.
Ella,
My conception of foreign policy is essentially based on natural geography. I do think that the rulers of countries from Syria to Egypt (including Israel) are mostly like gang leaders – Actually, this is the genesis of the state isn’t it ? But the geographical and human boundaries of their countries make them sooner or later abide by the inherent interests of this legal/formal entity called state.
Now, the Western winners of WWII, believed, for whatever reason, that there were compelled to give a state to the jews persecuted during not only the war but since lets say Isabel and Ferdinand. Since some Western European zionists were already active in a territory known as Palestine since the begining of the century, they devised a map of the region dividing it into 2 parts and creating by UN mandate Israel and Palestine. They got USSR agree to this plan with bargaining on other parts of the world – They were the winners so they thought the world was naturally theirs. Thats the reason I call US the godfather, and you do agree with me that US has and still is proving to be a really good one.
Unfortunatelly for Israel, the territory begiven to them was too small and to devoid of startegic positions against an “ennemy” much more numerous. In such a condition my common sens is telling me that when you rely on a distant godfather which is also servicing some of you “ennemies”, the ultimate startegic choice is a military inbalance in your favor (Thats Israel primary military strategy), and a politic of “zizanie” toward your “ennemies” (Thats Israel primary foreign policy strategy).
Now, if we come back to more day to day analysis, the declared policy of the IRI toward Israel/Palestinian problem is pretty simple: lets have all the palestinian refugees along with current inhabitant from local descent of the historical Palestine be them muslim, christian or jew, participate in a referendum and decide on their future.
This position, even though un-realistic today, sounds to me a fair and moraly acceptable one. I will ask you to go beyond all propaganda, slogans and take a good look at the true actions from both sides. You will see that the one that are over-extended and immoral are from the western hemisphere – including israel.
Lesly,
I don’t know if Iran will stop helping them or not, but for all your replies on Israel subject I refer you to my previous post (#41).
Your comments on “unleashing creative solutions” was in the context of democracy and capitalism going hand by hand and necessitating each other. I invite you to go to the streets of any big city in China or take a look at the extravaganza in southern persian gulf or even take a look at Iran and you will see that even though none of these region enjoy democracy as you see it, they show an extraordinary degre of “unleashing creative” capitalistic “solutions”.
Your point on my number 3 doesn’t contradict it and if you want the truth I won’t even be against what you are stating here. I can put (3) in another way: Ideology is antinomical to trade in general and international trade in particular.
I don’t exactly understand what you mean by revisionist, if you mean officially denying the holocaust you know better than me that IRI never did that. On the other hand if you are saying that asking for the UN to rescind one of its decision is being revisionist that sounds a little bit far fetched. If my memory is correct the UN did rescind one of its general assembly resolution in the recent years regarding the nature of zionism.
I do agree with you that not all state interests are peacfull in nature, including the iranian ones.
Your last point is kind of un-clear to me:
Iran has officialy declared, several time in the past, that it will produce 20 0000 megawatts of electricity in the next 15 to 20 years thru nuclear power plants. It has welcomed the Eu 3 package last year which was promessing assistance in building light watter reactors in Iran. It has a russian reactor (type unknown to me but most likely light watter) finished to 95% and ready to go into the grid by late this year. Iran is also building without external help a heavy watter reactor and planing to build without external help 350 Megawatt reactor. All NPT signatories should by Treaty obligation provide Iran with help on developping and securing nuclear peacefull technology. The Treaty was created this way to attract the Have-nots into it. Otherwise, no sovereign country would have been foolish enough to deprive itself from something so pwerfull that few have without getting anything substantial in counterpart. Thats one of the pillars of the post-WWII world order, besides the Trifecta you mentioned.
Good discussion though.
The policy of the IRI is summarized by the slogan “Death to Israel!” It isn’t a moderate policy, and the IRI’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is inherently destabilizing solely because its leaders have advertised their desire to use these weapons, without provocation, to destroy Israel. Furthermore, over the last 2 decades, the IRI leadership has done everything in its power to prevent the leaders of the Palestinians and of the Lebanese people from negotiating peacefully with Israel and reaching a settlement that THEY can accept.
Israel has reached out to the IRI on various occasions. The reverse has never been true.
Please compare apple to apples:
go to the ciafactbook statistics page (
My error, this is the link:
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/docs/rankorderguide.html
and compare Iran to its regional competitors: Turkey, Egypt and eventually Pakistan.
Thanks
Do you know how it feels like buying meat, rice, oil, etc. with coupons for at least 10 years?
Not for the whole 10 years, otherwise, yes…..and coffee and butter and sugar.
There has been no Iranian citizen doing a suicide bombing or individuals who do any terrorism act by own.
Smileme, are you serious? Don’t you know what Iranians did (or the people helped by IRI did)in Lebanon? Do you mean that suicide bombing sponsored by the government of any country is less of a terrorism than the actions of transnational organizations like Al Qaeda? And what does it say of citizens of the said country when half of them support (or at least do not protest – much- against) the actions of its government. I understand that many Iranians are opposed to these kind of actions, but that does not mean that all iranians are against them or that all iranians are not religious fanatics. If that was so you would not have people in Sepah, you also would not have mullahs like Mesbah Yazdi. Being patriots (or even nationalists) is commendable but there is not much difference between terrorists doing their stuff because of nationalism and terrorists doing their stuff because of religious fanaticism.
(will try to answer the rest tomorrow, too busy to do it now :-( )
Cheers.
Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan are all non-oil producing countries. Someone is in serious need of taking Economics 101 and political economy courses.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_economy
Serendip jan,
I said from the begining that Iran should be judged by its potentials. which are coming from its natural geography.
Iran can never be in the same league as US, Russia, EU or China. But the countries I mentioned are in the same league and Iran is doing better than them.
So long.