Iran: Important Developments
Posted by KamangirSep 4
1- The former head of IRGC and the new adviser to the Supreme Leader stated “There are 200,000 vulnerable American forces in the region and we have information about all their bases” [Persian].
2- Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Council, was elected by the members of the Assembly of Experts (AoE) as its head [Persian]. AoE elects the leaders and supervises him. Rafsanjani’s memoir was recently banned by Ahmadinejad’s Minister of Culture. With the parliamentary elections approaching, this is not good for Ahmadinejad. A friend who has been focused on the Islamic Republic says, “This can have two meanings, either the Iranians will see less idiocy form Ahmadinejad, or he will try to turn the table”.
“…and we have information about all their bases.”
So the Iranian theocracy finally discovered Google Earth. Great, now they have the same intelligence gathering capabilities as any six-year old.
1. If I was to think the Iranian government weren’t just rabble rousing, and were seriously making an open threat against the 200,000 American, British, Australian troops in Iraq, I’d probably make a point of reminding the Iranian government the American military already developed their own tactical and strategic nuclear weaponry some time ago. I’d probably also say something like how the Americans, in just one aircraft carrier taskforce, have more nuclear weaponry than everyone else combined. I could go on…
2. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s days in politics are numbered… and the number isn’t very high.
Kaman: What’s the significance of Rafsanjani being appointed as the speaker of powerful clerical body responsible for suprevising Iran’s Supreme Leader?
Kamangir: That means he is very much in charge of picking the next leader.
kaman: Thanks. Who do you think he will pick?
Kamangir: How about himself?
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Can he elect himself? Is it constitutional?
Arash,
Good call. There’s a lot of talk around Washington (and there has been) about the possibilities if Rafsanjani were in control. He might be one of the few Mullah’s who’d be willing to put Iran’s international and economic interests before the ‘Islamic’ ideology of the rest of the akhunds
Gabriel,
These two events are both Tehran’s response to the Pentagon report issued a report a few days back on how the US would disable Iran’s entire military capability in three days. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2369001.ece What it would suggest is that the IRGC Commander is playing the role of face-saver for the Islamic Republic while Rafsanjani is gearing up to play saviour to the Islamic Republic–think Gorbachev
matthew: It means that the warmongering-corporate IRGC and Ahmadinejad and his menotr Mesbah are out. I certainly hope that the looming war on Iran is also averted by this gesture.
From NY TIMES:http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/05/world/middleeast/05rafsanjani.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
The victory for Mr. Rafsanjani came in spite of increased pressure from the ultraconservative government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This week, the government stripped Mr. Rafsanjani’s autobiography from store shelves because it contained a passage claiming that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini supported plans to drop the “Death to America†slogan, which remains popular today. That book passage, and Mr. Rafsanjani, were derided in the Kayhan newspaper as well, the voice of the most radical forces in Iran.
Political analysts said that Mr. Rafsanjani’s influence is as low as it has ever been and that it was not clear if the new post would lift his status, or if his diminished authority would drag down the assembly. Mr. Rafsanjani was defeated by Mr. Ahmadinejad two years ago in a bid for the presidency and since has found his voice increasingly muffled and his advice to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei largely ignored, according to political analysts with close relations to Mr. Rafsanjani.
“I don’t think anything will change at the assembly,†said Abbas Abdi, a political analyst in Tehran. “It does not have anything to do with the political trends.â€
Theoretically, Mr. Rafsanjani should be a powerful force. In addition to heading the Assembly, he will retain his post in charge of the Expediency Council, which negotiates differences between the appointed hard-line decision makers on the Guardian Council, and the elected parliament. But the supreme leader has final say on all matters of state. He has shown no interest in rehabilitating Mr. Rafsanjani’s influence and has long viewed him as a challenge to his own authority, many political analysts said.
Just before the vote, Mr. Rafsanjani hinted that he might press the Assembly to have more robust profile than the past three decades, when it had not issued even a single public report.
“If the Experts Assembly wants to play a more active role in the country’s affairs, it has the religious and legal justification to do that,†IRNA quoted Mr. Rafsanjani. The news agency said he added: “Perhaps the assembly will do so in its upcoming term.â€
This could be a ploy to buy more time.
This is from The Associated Press from about twenty minutes ago:
“Analysts said the election showed that more moderate conservatives like Rafsanjani were gaining ground in Iran, where there is increasing discontent with the ruling hard-liners over rising tensions with the West, a worsening economy and price hikes in basic commodities and housing. Ahmadinejad’s allies were humiliated in December local elections, in which moderate conservatives won a big victory.
“Rafsanjani’s election is yet another no to the fossilized extremists such as Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi. Given differences between Rafsanjani and Khamenei, the election of Rafsanjani is seen as a challenge to the supreme leader,” said political analyst Hamid Reza Shokouhi, referring to Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, who is Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor.
While extremists such as Jannati are among the proponents of the theory that the legitimacy of Iran’s clerics to rule the country is derived from God, Rafsanjani is believed to side with pro-democracy reformers who believe the government’s authority is derived from popular elections.”
Dude… the only way it would take the American military — moving at full speed — three days to disable the Iranian military would be if the Americans took 36 hours off to get some “me time” in Qatar.
I think that the major difference between Rafsanjani and others concerns mainly internal policies of IRI. As for foreign policy I suspect his aims are the same as others but his methods are/will be different.
I am also not so sure that Ahmadinejad and IRGC are out. At the time of last elections everybody thought that Rafsanjani will be a new president, but Ahmadinejad got chosen, so there may be yet some surprises in the nearest future. Hopefully the surprises will be a good ones.
Ella, Khameni, recently in a speech said, “We will outsmart our enemies”. Rafsanjani is seen by the “useful idiots” and the “realist” camp in the U.S. as the “moderate” (btw, he is a wanted man by Argentina). This appointment will resurrect the leftist argument for more diplomacy and a possibility of a “Grand Bargain”.
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=35885
This is definitely another scheme Khamieni et al have whipped up to deceive the fifth column in the U.S.
Rafsanjani is no moderate, he’s just a lot smarter than the likes of AJ. He’s wanted in Argentina for planning and ordering the suicide truck-bombing of a Jewish Community Center there. As you said, Serendip, the self-proclaimed “realists” will push for some grand agreement, thus building short-term stability to build up their political careers and funds, and so will the truly moronic camp that will do anything if it blames US policies at the same time. And Iran will buy further time.
Rafsanjani is seen by the “useful idiots†and the “realist†camp in the U.S. as the “moderateâ€
Qaradawi is also seen as “moderate” as is Tariq Ramadan. Oh, well.
This is definitely another scheme Khamieni et al have whipped up to deceive the fifth column in the U.S.
???
Uhuh
Serendip, I think that under This……to deceive the fifth column in the US you meant “useful idiots” and such. Sorry I did not catch it if that’s what you meant. That’s probably my upbringing….. if somebody says “fifth column” I automatically think of “people who have loyalty to the country other than the one in which they reside” i.e. I do not think of ” useful fools” or “realists”.
[...] the former Head of the Revolutionary Guard has stated: “There are 200,000 vulnerable American forces in the region and we have information about all [...]
Iran Seizes Initiative for Patching up Palestinian Feud to Steal Show from US
http://iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news.pl?l=en&y=2007&m=09&d=05&a=13
Serendip, Farouk Kadoumi, as far as I know, usually sits in Damascus begging for Syrian scraps. He doesn’t represent the Fatah in the Palestinian Authority in any way, but rather a splinter group that wants to live off Syrian and Iranian money.
The very idea of such a “reconcillation” is simply laughable, not to forget that it was freebooters
like Kadoumi that made the Fatah into a rotten and corrupt shell.
As for an Israeli attack on Syria… Meh. Both armies are set in defensive arrays near the border, yet it isn’t Ehud Olmert that’s making sword-rattling speeches of Resistance, Liberation, Victory and whatnot. That role is held by Assad Junior. And as long as the Syrians are in a defensive array, Israel won’t be that bothered.
It’s a flammable situation, true, but the article overblows it.