Closer and Closer, Iran in Serious Danger (Updated)
By Kamangir • Sep 12th, 2007 • Category: Iran, Islamic Republic, USFox News: “U.S. Officials Begin Crafting Iran Bombing Plan”
Germany — a pivotal player among three European nations to rein in Iran’s nuclear program over the last two-and-a-half years through a mixture of diplomacy and sanctions supported by the United States — notified its allies last week that the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel refuses to support the imposition of any further sanctions against Iran that could be imposed by the U.N. Security Council…The Germans voiced concern about the damaging effects any further sanctions on Iran would have on the German economy — and also, according to diplomats from other countries, gave the distinct impression that they would privately welcome, while publicly protesting, an American bombing campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
If by any chance anything happens, I will know Mr Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Khameneii, and other Islamic Republic officials responsible.
Update: The Iranian blogosphere is steadily responding to this piece. Kash News translates it to Persian and writes, “This piece is different from others like it, because Fox News has direct access to the Bush administration officials. We have to take this report very seriously” [Persian]. Our Perspective is worried that, “even thirty percent of what is mentioned might be true”. He wishes “God save Iran from warmongers inside Iran and outside it” [Persian]. Nikahang refers to another similar report and writes, “I am not saying to freak out, but … this shows that those who are members of Iran’s national security council has been the very same people who have caused the worst for it as well” [Persian]. In the Iranian Digg, on a post from Persian Kamangir, people are still writing opposite comments. Some are very worried, but some others call this “another one the threats we have heard in the last thirty years” [Persian].
Related: Nukes on B-52, Mistake, Inside Job, or Message
Link through Lesly
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Thanks for posting this. :)
As I wrote on my blog, I don’t believe our hands our tied with regards to Iran. The IRI appears willing to implode by its own hand thanks to economic mismanagement (the link to the left is having problems loading now). Attacking the state would flush the regime with nationalist support.
I also don’t begrudge Germany’s decision to bow out if the story is accurate. Every state has to look after their own interests and I’m not sure more sanctions will (1) really hurt the IRI and (2) are necessary. The regime is avoiding playing another round of “prove a negative” game with the U.S. by cooperating with the IAEA. Not that the current U.S. regime cares, as usual.
Lesly
Economic mismanagement is one thing, the implosion of IRI is the other. IRI economy does not look very bright however IRI has money from gas and oil and any kind of implosion will be long in coming. Look how economy was mismanaged during the shah era and how long it took to remove shah. Furthermore IRI is different from the government under the shah, the government of shah was not religious, IRI government is religious and if there would be any kind of fatwa from majority of the mullahs how many people will go against it? The economy would have to be in an awfull, terrible state for people to decide to go against their religious government.
As for cooperation with IAEA, IRI one moment is co-operating and in another, when circumstances change, it stops cooperating. Now it suits it to show cooperative face but I am not so sure about their real willingness to cooperate.
Ella,
I doubt economic instability will lead to a democratic regime but I know attacking Iran will help the mullah elites. Independent Iranian movements have more courage than domestic U.S. movements. And probably more symmetry. I’m not sure what amount of “havoc” student groups can wreak, but they will not help the regime.
I think the IRI will cooperate with the IAEA as long as the IAEA has something to offer it is technical assistance with Arak’s heavy water plant.
Should read: “to offer and right now it is technical assistance…”
lesly
On the question of attacking Iran I am not a proponent of attacking Iran, although sometimes reading IRI statements I wonder.
Students in Iran have a long tradition of protesting against IRI and before IRI against shah rule.
Student protests will definitely not help the regime, but I do not think that they will seriously impede IRI policy.
As for courage, there are differences between states and IRI, the major difference is the different political system. Oh, and one more difference, many people who support some of “domestic movements” in US may be called “useful fools”. I believe students movement in Iran are not composed of “useful fools”.
One more thought. During the communist era many people in the west protested against the west nuclear weapons and the policy of the west regarding Soviet Union and its allies. Some people even actively supported the “peacefull nuclear development” in Soviet Union. People in Soviet Union and its satellites also protested against the west nuclear weapons and the policy of the west. The difference was a lot of people in the west believed in USSR good intention, not many who were living in the USSR believed that.